Project Red Mesa pipeline
8 × Supermicro GB300 NVL72 racks · 576 GPUs · ~135 kW/rack liquid-cooled · ~1.1 MW IT load · operated on Brokkr.
Gate command board
Commercial
MSA + Order Form signed; credit support agreed
Capital
Financing committed
Site / colo
Colo signed with energization dates in writing
Acceptance
Acceptance certificate + lender verification
Worked back from RFS window
Ship Jun 4 → Dock Jun 14 → Rack & stack Jun 15–25 → Burn-in Jun 28–Jul 5 → Acceptance Jul 9 → RFS Jul 12–Aug 2.
Action plan / 16 TASKS
Active risks
| Risk | Severity | Owner / mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Escrow longstop Jul 12 collides with RFS | blocked | Hydra Capital · request Sep 30 |
| Quillfield credit / LC refusal | blocked | Hydra Capital · prepay + guarantee |
| Optics / switch / CDU dates unconfirmed | at risk | Procurement · T10 overdue |
| Hall A energization slips Apr 30 | at risk | FDE · track commissioning |
| Acceptance thresholds absent from MSA | at risk | Legal + FDE · T12 / T15 |
Deal timeline
Signals requiring attention
Why it matters · Longstop Jul 12 = first day of RFS window.
Why it matters · Quillfield hasn't opened the portal in 6 days; 2 tasks due Dec 18.
Why it matters · Per-line ship dates overdue since Dec 15.
Why it matters · 19→32 wk moved 3 parties’ dates; offtaker has not acknowledged.
Red Mesa / Q3 2027
Red Mesa: 576 GPUs, expected online Q3 2027 (RFS window Jul 12–Aug 2). 1 of 4 gates cleared → Pipeline. Moves to Best Case when Gate A clears (target Jan 15). Biggest risks: credit support and escrow longstop. Lead-time change already priced in (was Q2 at 19 wks).
Economics
Internal positioning
Hydra management fee: 5% (ASSUMPTION) — rate from a call; basis assumed as % of rental revenue — ≈ ~$2.35M over 3-year term on mock revenue. Hardware passed through at no markup (assumption). Margin lives in the rental contract.
Commercial posture
Brightwater Tokens is a live second bidder — use it as leverage on credit support. Don't go below 3 months prepay. Spec cluster = rate likely higher by delivery; keep offtake rate firm at $3.10. Lender flexible on +100 bps, not on LC-equivalent.
Internal comments
Prairie Peak verbally OK with prepay + guarantee at +100 bps.
Need CDU spec before rack elevation is final.
Supermicro still hasn't confirmed optics line — chasing.
GPUs-online forecast by gate
0–1 gates = Pipeline · 2 = Best Case · 3 = Commit · 4 = Online
| Deal | GPUs | Gates | Category | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Mesa | 576 | 1/4 | Pipeline | Q3 '27 |
| Juniper Flats | 256 | 3/4 | Commit | Q2 '27 |
| Copper Basin | 1,152 | 0/4 | Pipeline | Q4 '27 |
Red Mesa slipped Q2→Q3 '27 due to 32-week lead time. Rep comp is paid on GPUs online — forecast counts only GPUs past RFS.
Deployment readiness
32 wks confirmed
unconfirmed
unconfirmed
unconfirmed
Quillfield counsel says prepay OK, guarantee needs parent board — expect Dec 21.